Indonesia: The pandemic tsunami

Indonesia is likely going to become one of the main hotspots Covid19 soon and perhaps the first country in the Global South badly affected by the pandemic.

In Indonesia, number of Covid19 deaths is doubling every week . As of 14 April there were 460 confirmed deaths because of Covid19. Number of confirmed cases was close to 5,000. There is clearly a severe underreporting given that there have been only 27,000 tests conducted (one of the lowest test x population size rates in the World: only 100 tests per million people).   

Social distance is not yet too strong. As of 5th April, mobility trends in public transportation hubs were only 58% per cent less than normal, and shopping centres or restaurants only saw a 43% decline in mobility. It’s important to keep in mind that most of the confirmed cases  and deaths are concentrated in Java, which includes several large urban areas (including Jakarta) and has a total of 150 M inhabitants and more than 1,100 people per square kilometre (one of the highest population densities in the World). In such a context, and without strict social distance, rapid spread is really unavoidable.

Given this background, a 10% infection rate would not be an unrealistic horizon for Indonesia. This would mean, as per the East Anglia University calculator  (which fully keeps in mind the age population structure of every country) around 300,000 deaths. That number would be reached by mid-June. In fact things can easily get even worst, given the limited access to intensive medical care  available in the country, which might increase the mortality rate even higher.

Given this perspective, its of the utmost importance that means are put in place for the urban poor across the country to get access NOW to food, hygiene items and other basic needs so they can limit social interaction to the much possible extend (while keeping basic livelihoods). it will also be key to promote community-based quarantine models for rural areas, so farmers can keep producing food -while communities are protected from the spread of the virus.

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(picture: Al Jazeera)