Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely have significant negative effects that could be very painful for farmers and consumers everywhere. The war is probably going to raise food prices globally. Impact will be hardest on the already vulnerable and most food insecure people, and specially for poor women and girls in the Global South.
A global food crisis on the make
Breadbaskets of the World
Ukraine and Russia are the breadbaskets of the world. Together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade, 20% of corn and barley shipments, plus about 80% of sunflower oil trade. Many countries in the Global South, are highly dependent on food exports from Ukraine and Russia, including Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Nigeria and Pakistan.
Wheat and other grains produced in Ukraine and Russia are the main food sources for food aid, on which refugees and internally displaced people in Yemen, Syria and many other parts of the World relay for survival.
Food production in Ukraine has already plumed because of the war, and food exports are now banned in fear of scarcity for the local population.
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| The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine , as of March 11, (J.Echanove, 2022) |
In the case of Russia, production keeps moving on, but trade is severely disrupted as vessel traffic came to a halt in the Black Sea due to the war. Sanctions on Russian economy will likely have a further negative effect in Russia’s agriculture production and reducing its exports. These reductions in the supply are already impacting on the prices. Wheat price in the future markets is now the highest in 15 years.
Fertilizers prices soaring
Fertilizers are key to ensure good yields. Many farmers in the world relay on chemical fertilizers produced by Russia or Ukraine. Most countries in Africa are highly dependent on these fertilizers imports. The global fertilizer market is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a big way. The Prices have jumped already, increasing production costs for the farmers.
Expensive energy
Energy prices (coal, petrol, gas) have been going up already since early 2020 and are now skyrocketing because of thew war. Food production relay on energy (tractors’ fuel, petrol for shipping food exports, electricity for food processing factories…), so the increase in energy costs is already amplifying the increase in food prices even further. Transportation freight costs for food assistance and relief supplies increase will make aid more expensive.
Women smallscale producers: on the frontlines of the crisis
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Women farmers in Malawi. Juan Echanove, 2018 |
The threat of soaring prices will be particularly challenging for those whose rural livelihoods were already precarious. The prohibitive cost of inputs (fertilizers, fuel, etc.) will make production more costly for small-scale producers. They are also food consumers, so soaring food prices will offset any opportunities higher output food prices might create. And this is happening in a context were food insecurity was already soaring globally, dot to the impacts of conflicts and climate change and the effects of the pandemic-driven global economic crisis.
Because agricultural gender inequalities remain strong, women farmers are particularly at risk of hunger, especially when crisis strikes. On average, rural women account for nearly half the agricultural workforce in developing countries. Despite their crucial roles in household food security, they face discrimination and limited bargaining power. Within the household, because of weaker bargaining position they eat least, last and least well.
Our foods systems are profoundly unequal and unjust: the increasing dependence on cereals at the expense of traditional foods and greater reliance on imported food by countries in the Global South are, at the end of the day, root causes of the upcoming food insecurity crisis.
More than ever, the World needs to supporting paths to self-reliance for small-scale producers and local markets, promoting diet diversity, more efficient use of fertilizers (including further swift to organic production), reducing food waste (so food produce is used more efficiently) and empowering women farmers, because we know that closing the gender gap good grews food production and build a sustainable future for all.
They are mainly men, not women and children, the ones provoking and fighting wars. But women and children are those who mainly suffer wars' horrific immediate consequences and amplifed impacts, including hunger.
