On war, crisis and women farmers

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely have significant negative effects that could be very painful for farmers and consumers everywhere. The war is probably going to raise food prices globally. Impact will be hardest on the already vulnerable and most food insecure people, and specially for poor women and girls in the Global South. 

A global food crisis on the make 

Unfortunately, there is no question that there will be a further global food crisis caused by the Ukraine/Russia war. How severe will it be is what is not yet fully clear, altough FAO just made preliminary estimations that the conflict will trigger a jump in the number of malnourished people by 8 to 12 million  in 2002/23. The Impact will be hardest on the already vulnerable and most food insecure people. 

Breadbaskets of the World

Ukraine and Russia are the breadbaskets of the world. Together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade, 20% of corn and barley shipments, plus about 80% of sunflower oil trade. Many countries in the Global South, are highly dependent on food exports from Ukraine and Russia, including Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Nigeria and Pakistan.  

Wheat and other grains produced in Ukraine and Russia are the main food sources for food aid, on which refugees and internally displaced people in Yemen, Syria and many other parts of the World relay for survival. 

Food production in Ukraine has already plumed because of the war, and food exports are now banned in fear of scarcity for the local population. 

The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine , as of March 11, (J.Echanove, 2022)

In the case of Russia, production keeps moving on, but trade is severely disrupted as vessel traffic came to a halt in the Black Sea due to the war. Sanctions on Russian economy will likely have a further negative effect in Russia’s agriculture production and reducing its exports. These reductions in the supply are already impacting on the prices. Wheat price in the future markets is now the highest in 15 years. 

Fertilizers prices soaring 

Fertilizers are key to ensure good yields. Many farmers in the world relay on chemical fertilizers produced by Russia or Ukraine. Most countries in Africa  are highly dependent on these fertilizers imports. The global fertilizer market is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a big way. The Prices have jumped already, increasing production costs for the farmers. 

Expensive energy

Energy prices (coal, petrol, gas) have been going up already since early 2020 and are now skyrocketing because of thew war. Food production relay on energy (tractors’ fuel, petrol for shipping food exports, electricity for food processing factories…), so the increase in energy costs is already amplifying the increase in food prices even further. Transportation freight costs for food assistance and relief supplies increase will make aid more expensive.

Women smallscale producers: on the frontlines of the crisis

Women farmers in Malawi. Juan Echanove, 2018

The upcoming global food crisis  will likely have devastating impacts on the World’s poorest people, deepening their poverty and seriously undermining their right to food. Smallholder farmers and women (60% of the world’s chronically hungry people) will be disproportionately affected. 

The threat of soaring prices will be particularly challenging for those whose rural livelihoods were already precarious. The prohibitive cost of inputs (fertilizers, fuel, etc.) will make production more costly for small-scale producers. They are also food consumers, so soaring food prices will offset any opportunities higher output food prices might create. And this is happening in a context were food insecurity was already soaring globally, dot to the impacts of conflicts and climate change and the effects of the pandemic-driven global economic crisis. 

Because agricultural gender inequalities remain strong, women farmers are particularly at risk of hunger, especially when crisis strikes. On average, rural women account for nearly half the agricultural workforce in developing countries. Despite their crucial roles in household food security, they face discrimination and limited bargaining power. Within the household, because of weaker bargaining position they eat least, last and least well. 

Our foods systems are profoundly unequal and unjust: the increasing dependence on cereals at the expense of traditional foods and greater reliance on imported food by countries in the Global South are, at the end of the day, root causes of the upcoming food insecurity crisis. 

 More than ever, the World needs to supporting paths to self-reliance for small-scale producers and local markets, promoting  diet diversity, more efficient use of fertilizers (including further swift to organic production), reducing food waste (so food produce is used more efficiently) and empowering women farmers, because we know that closing the gender gap good grews food production and build a sustainable future for all.

They are mainly men, not women and children, the ones provoking and fighting  wars. But women and children are those who mainly suffer wars' horrific immediate consequences and amplifed impacts, including hunger.

Burbujas

Lo que está pasando en Ucrania era obvio y totalmente predecible. Algunos avisaron. Otros prefirieron vivir mundos de fantasía. Me aflije y me da mucho temor la nebulosa para analizar la realidad en la que viven la mayor parte de los ciudadanos europeos, y que ya se demostró en los inicios de la pandemia, cuando era evidente lo que iba a suceder. Ahora ha pasado lo mismo con la invasión rusa a Ucrania. Es como una infantilización colectiva de la realidad, una sensación absurda de que en Europa nunca podría suceder nada verdaderamente 'malo'. 

Varias generaciones de europeos no expuestas nunca a peligros colectivos reales y la escasa empatia hacia el resto del Planeta (las guerras, las epidemias, nunca han cesado en el mundo que nos rodea) ham hecho vivir a muchísima gente en nuestros países, incluso gente informada y culta, en una especie de burbuja. 

El estoicismo y la capacidad para mirar a los ojos el peligro, para abordarlo serenamente y con juicio es para mí uno de los pilares de la civilización. Pero es un pilar que nuestras sociedades parecen haber olvidado. No, el mundo no es un lugar ' peor' ahora, pero tampoco es un lugar perfecto...el mundo es el de siempre , con enornes progresos y razones para ser optimistas, y también con grandes tragedias y sufrimientos que forman parte de la experiencia humana. 

Para que esos sufrimientos y tragedias impacten cada vez menos en la vida de nuestras sociedades la única solución es la respuesta colectiva, el comprender que lo que ocurre en cualquier rincón del mundo, es también nuestro problema. Sin seguridad para todos no hay seguridad para nadie. Sin vacunas para todos la epidemia no puede erradicarse...es la respuesta colectiva a los grandes retos lo único que puede salvarnos. Las burbujas de prosperidad y el mirar al otro lado ya no sirve. Nuestras sociedades no pueden vivir como niños consentidos que se han olvidado del sentido de la responsabilidad. 

Si algunos pocos nos avisaron de lo que se venía encima y no se les escuchaba, o no se les creía, o se les llamaba alarmistas, es por el miedo a crecer, el miedo a la realidad. 

Ser verdaderamente adulto no es negar los peligros, es confrontarlos, para evitar que sucedan.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN?

There will be war, almost certainly, but it will be short and limited, not a full invasion of Ukraine. I think it will happen like this: 

 The Russian parliament is going to recognize the independence of the 'Dombass republics' right now. The republics will likely apply immediately for formal incorporation into Russia and Russia will start the admission process at full speed. 

In the meantime, any of the small skirmishes that have never ceased to occur along the Dombass front line will serve as an excuse for Russia to claim that Ukraine has begun a large-scale operation to recapture the Dombass (and Ukraine's massive military presence there right now, to prevent an invassion, will make it easier for Russia to justify). Russia will then say that it has no choice but to enter with its army to help the population of the Dombass republics, and that it has the legal right (and 'moral obligation') to do so, since they are in the process of becoming an official part of Russia (and in fact the bulk of their population has already a Russian passport: Russia started some years ago issuing passports there to anyone who wanted them). 

 Russia would not limit its offensive to the Dombass area but will attack Ukraine along the entire frontier, with emphasis on the border area closest to Kiev, not with the aim of taking the city (it will not do it, nor will it try, it will only get close, as it did with Tbilisi in 2004). It is possible that it will also attack from the south, from Crime, in the direction of Odessa. The purpose of occupying patches of territory in Ucrania well beyond Crimea and Dombass, and in the proximity of Kiev, will not be to retain them afterwards, but to have the upper hand during the negotiation process later. 

 I believe that it will be a very short but very bloody war, with obicous use of heavy and sophisticted weaponry. It is possible that the Belarusian army will also intervene directly on the side of Russia. Neither the US nor the European countries will send ground forces, although mercenaries and volunters will suport both sides and there will be a large supply of weapons to Ukraine from the West. 

 The war, although very short, will provoke a brief global crisis with a crash in the stock markets, a brutal rise in the cost of energy and massive hacker attacks on Western interests. 

Everything will be very, very fast. In a few days, and with Russia having gained control of portions of Ukraine, but without having at all 'conquered' most of the country, not even getitng close to do so, there will be a ceasefire intermediated by countries neutral in the conflict, such as Turkey or Sweden. 

 A formal negotiation process will strat, in which Russia will agree to withdraw from all the territory of Ukraine occupied by its forces, returning to the pre-war situation (Crimea and Donbass under Russian control) in exchange for (1 ) the international community declaring and granting a 'neutrality' status for Ukraine (such as Finland's neutrality agreed after WWII) so that Ukraine will never join NATO and will become a buffer zone for Russia and (2) the international community recognizing the status quo of Dombass and Crimea as part of Russia. I think Russia will get (1), but probably not fully (2)- perhaps the fate of those territories will be tied to some future UN-granted referemdum .There will be international ground forces deployed to observe the ceasifire and the agreement, under UN aegis. 

 Hence, I don't think it will be a long conflict, neither that a total annexation of Ukraine by Russia will happen, nor that a world war IIII will erupt. But the problem with violent conflicts like this is that, altough we may predict more or less how they strat, there is also the risk of things later to go quite out of control, so eventally things might turn even nastier...and there quite many ways for that to happen in this conflict (e.g. the Baltics geeting involved, or Molodova melted on this because os Transnistria, etc...nor to mention China taking advantage of the situation and going after Taiwan). But I don't think any of these further 'spill overs' will happen. The war will be confined to Ukraine. Lets hope that even this 'limited war' scenario I am predicting will not happen and that peace will prevail. But I am not very optimistic. 

At the end , as in every conflict, those that will losse the most will be the civilians: the women, men and children trapped in the middle of the violence driven my high political and economic interests. Sad.