tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7735395542295445022024-03-19T04:36:30.965+01:00El sitio de mi recreoCuentos cortos, recuerdos confusos de viajes y desvarios varios. Contenido no apto para viejos de menteJuanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.comBlogger628125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-85669483157091152152023-09-02T18:01:00.007+02:002023-09-02T18:16:52.774+02:00Neandertal (V): La Playa<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRp7r50F2lr2c__vHpACMWyY3hmXIfoARB6N-OXxL26kJXgsS5WLYdlsynSTyhM_9BqQp5UXs8A7GJSMjP4h2TbUk6LfIV-b0nXi7PbEta9MsFvt4rbaaDZiMA3i73GQrPuTvnZAFK6XTpt64OMXCWN2sMLDq3mjaGiRIwNh78IOCdi7cTq8MEZD-U16U/s981/01.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="981" data-original-width="727" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRp7r50F2lr2c__vHpACMWyY3hmXIfoARB6N-OXxL26kJXgsS5WLYdlsynSTyhM_9BqQp5UXs8A7GJSMjP4h2TbUk6LfIV-b0nXi7PbEta9MsFvt4rbaaDZiMA3i73GQrPuTvnZAFK6XTpt64OMXCWN2sMLDq3mjaGiRIwNh78IOCdi7cTq8MEZD-U16U/s16000/01.png" /></a><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikWWK3J6gJ_z95oYjVzuip5-ZKW8xJwWckERcxXwHuPNypl2ESwvwsQ_nchNGQy6TX1ksc2a4qVvjwYHtYWrbu-KCV1OuURlgTZ-L2E5MHIwKB16gE0pYCVdFP4rvf-R4fO0XSF3LU2nu0egSzPfrJ16qFl12vGmzDONN873TunSDwpG1iAWwB6Dnf" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="728" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikWWK3J6gJ_z95oYjVzuip5-ZKW8xJwWckERcxXwHuPNypl2ESwvwsQ_nchNGQy6TX1ksc2a4qVvjwYHtYWrbu-KCV1OuURlgTZ-L2E5MHIwKB16gE0pYCVdFP4rvf-R4fO0XSF3LU2nu0egSzPfrJ16qFl12vGmzDONN873TunSDwpG1iAWwB6Dnf=s16000" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-17586123101117960332023-05-03T21:04:00.002+02:002023-05-03T21:04:10.209+02:00<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUQsUE0uRjh5v5gKIHKX3aXAAeDOpu35lLcZ01yOkU9bLm542hQKQ-h5FmQ7j-J3HGyZ8jlgfcLOHRNj0FbqILZNCuvZzUR_2oVYoXVNlGjC6sCPcku-Xh_5pW1oxAcpiaUD7s7_NkxPpuij8GEZvbmx4ePsPjCnEfjkJa22kXREINT8X7zBe1LrIJ" style="margin-left: 1em; 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text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIVk7SuXAl8YD1GmFxggUND6MJApb0LkhUWuvbtbX_fB17cviZRss3LCi37aE0V3E0Yo02udBIVc6kIUYozwfXidxSaJN7vNxtrMZV4wR7cuCa5308DzLKSRnhBwK29rrfdB_6jAjKs0ZvuTv6LbL1KrCagAQWteIKFSmXmaxK0IqC7pKgxjbtN4oz" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1021" data-original-width="720" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjIVk7SuXAl8YD1GmFxggUND6MJApb0LkhUWuvbtbX_fB17cviZRss3LCi37aE0V3E0Yo02udBIVc6kIUYozwfXidxSaJN7vNxtrMZV4wR7cuCa5308DzLKSRnhBwK29rrfdB_6jAjKs0ZvuTv6LbL1KrCagAQWteIKFSmXmaxK0IqC7pKgxjbtN4oz=s16000" /></a></div><br /><p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-80858460209719987252023-04-14T19:08:00.003+02:002023-04-14T19:08:41.041+02:00<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK2vVy9E0DjENruqbIqZKSqALuBiKVbpG4u3yi9rU3jNUPiBRRUjnrHMMLmQ11xxEUtxaRdaNjUFO72T76eys2FzH0AhlSq86HnCgi30AXoJxcQa1QQM2kqfWYlECB339eGtrA8h1jfKc4REWTtqiQlmpoHx-G1LztuhVTNJurbBoFvkYmu2PWNFEM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1045" data-original-width="733" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiK2vVy9E0DjENruqbIqZKSqALuBiKVbpG4u3yi9rU3jNUPiBRRUjnrHMMLmQ11xxEUtxaRdaNjUFO72T76eys2FzH0AhlSq86HnCgi30AXoJxcQa1QQM2kqfWYlECB339eGtrA8h1jfKc4REWTtqiQlmpoHx-G1LztuhVTNJurbBoFvkYmu2PWNFEM=s16000" /></span></a></div><br /> <p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-27162172318552522602023-04-14T19:07:00.001+02:002023-04-14T19:07:05.914+02:00<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0omTL8-DGUcN3zobz-B11KWDRbXcg9aXUYI421rJNc1-e-ESpM7Yr2Ic804acTMGAoX5cLXfz4poofqMnj5OTnqYTIPwz_P0KKQxdEeZGXnhmWWz6_14Kx6P-2OmvUJXyQAIP_58IJMRM4Oln6g6DG11T16RhpDzblyZwSNlzGze-lYRZyaSuVmpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1048" data-original-width="739" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0omTL8-DGUcN3zobz-B11KWDRbXcg9aXUYI421rJNc1-e-ESpM7Yr2Ic804acTMGAoX5cLXfz4poofqMnj5OTnqYTIPwz_P0KKQxdEeZGXnhmWWz6_14Kx6P-2OmvUJXyQAIP_58IJMRM4Oln6g6DG11T16RhpDzblyZwSNlzGze-lYRZyaSuVmpg=s16000" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-81295243735010148032023-04-14T19:06:00.003+02:002023-04-14T19:06:25.698+02:00<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMPag4-_s_aIPZxKuiIN05jmtnJJan7jKkDaqpd8zsls_WeaZMHGNVSrk0XRuj2HamKWdQ9e8oTfBQNcCuTE227rf0doI9BXlShrMA1Ym3smk3YUxff8p3THbymUF8XVJA56Awyf3L0pr1afz1l0enrujm-WmbgfW95bYUcNTA5XeacgxYW2pzXy0L" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1044" data-original-width="711" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMPag4-_s_aIPZxKuiIN05jmtnJJan7jKkDaqpd8zsls_WeaZMHGNVSrk0XRuj2HamKWdQ9e8oTfBQNcCuTE227rf0doI9BXlShrMA1Ym3smk3YUxff8p3THbymUF8XVJA56Awyf3L0pr1afz1l0enrujm-WmbgfW95bYUcNTA5XeacgxYW2pzXy0L=s16000" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-81504983307852006492023-04-12T13:26:00.005+02:002023-04-12T16:44:10.823+02:00<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicPfWk8tcmAGU5EI05nGKLWSUK62_A1HdB5NlQvIrlDtg8iVWIUG_BpEMCtiYFcoKd3e01jyEHQJyel29cQReASEniXVx2qpEbMdb0FkN5qB8LEcbyx_wmCdOu-UO2RBBlc6yYj3ZWKGyem0_D_LFnwvIX0xei7AXje0IY_llyg7QG5J15u2BtgBAg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1039" data-original-width="719" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicPfWk8tcmAGU5EI05nGKLWSUK62_A1HdB5NlQvIrlDtg8iVWIUG_BpEMCtiYFcoKd3e01jyEHQJyel29cQReASEniXVx2qpEbMdb0FkN5qB8LEcbyx_wmCdOu-UO2RBBlc6yYj3ZWKGyem0_D_LFnwvIX0xei7AXje0IY_llyg7QG5J15u2BtgBAg=s16000" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-20469344494666652452022-03-11T09:56:00.022+01:002022-03-11T17:14:19.990+01:00On war, crisis and women farmers<div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely have significant negative effects that could be very painful for farmers and consumers everywhere. The war is probably going to raise food prices globally. Impact will be hardest on the already vulnerable and most food insecure people, and specially for poor women and girls in the Global South. </b></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="color: #b45f06;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A global food crisis on the make </span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #b45f06; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh-sNKhQchi9SCXgGMt9KV0QysTUymmkKuKTWMLvRkc65cMIcijbv_mUxpLNeJ9-jd9sFretZlbl2X93WPS97laQD9Zyws2XcWFk6gqNwj2c7T7v7vwZbsWP5HxMtnhb_X6r2K7QwNtAbBTXN_QpipnZygjS_tYzmTJTj5Y0bs3dr_4iysnzPDqP38J=s618" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="495" data-original-width="618" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh-sNKhQchi9SCXgGMt9KV0QysTUymmkKuKTWMLvRkc65cMIcijbv_mUxpLNeJ9-jd9sFretZlbl2X93WPS97laQD9Zyws2XcWFk6gqNwj2c7T7v7vwZbsWP5HxMtnhb_X6r2K7QwNtAbBTXN_QpipnZygjS_tYzmTJTj5Y0bs3dr_4iysnzPDqP38J=s320" width="320" /></a></div><span style="text-align: justify;">Unfortunately, there is no question that there will be a further global food crisis caused by the Ukraine/Russia war. How severe will it be is what is not yet fully clear, altough FAO just made preliminary estimations that the conflict will trigger a jump in the number of malnourished people by 8 to 12 million in 2002/23. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">The Impact will be hardest on the already vulnerable and most food insecure people. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Breadbaskets of the World</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Ukraine and Russia are the breadbaskets of the world. Together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade, 20% of corn and barley shipments, plus about 80% of sunflower oil trade. Many countries in the Global South, are highly dependent on food exports from Ukraine and Russia, including Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Nigeria and Pakistan. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Wheat and other grains produced in Ukraine and Russia are the main food sources for food aid, on which refugees and internally displaced people in Yemen, Syria and many other parts of the World relay for survival. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Food production in Ukraine has already plumed because of the war, and food exports are now banned in fear of scarcity for the local population. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiThqMugoR27xmKiRsVi2FpYJBX9mGzP5vimCvZKEuHkAJuEv9x_c1ofZhbrlzjnRbO_Mr08VD1PkgMnYqNTJJ0GK7E9YCZTwhf3RcJvexfCjKd7yVDpm362kC3eWwhM6FqcsZNNt2k066xZuc7Gc4sRonLA-1FVu9YGrdRE98wuPhtJY-mY5V-sYT7=s1299" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1299" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiThqMugoR27xmKiRsVi2FpYJBX9mGzP5vimCvZKEuHkAJuEv9x_c1ofZhbrlzjnRbO_Mr08VD1PkgMnYqNTJJ0GK7E9YCZTwhf3RcJvexfCjKd7yVDpm362kC3eWwhM6FqcsZNNt2k066xZuc7Gc4sRonLA-1FVu9YGrdRE98wuPhtJY-mY5V-sYT7=w640-h422" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine , as of March 11, (J.Echanove, 2022)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;">In the case of Russia, production keeps moving on, but trade is severely disrupted as vessel traffic came to a halt in the Black Sea due to the war. Sanctions on Russian economy will likely have a further negative effect in Russia’s agriculture production and reducing its exports. These reductions in the supply are already impacting on the prices. Wheat price in the future markets is now the highest in 15 years. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Fertilizers prices soaring </b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Fertilizers are key to ensure good yields. Many farmers in the world relay on chemical fertilizers produced by Russia or Ukraine. Most countries in Africa are highly dependent on these fertilizers imports. The global fertilizer market is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a big way. The Prices have jumped already, increasing production costs for the farmers. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Expensive energy</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">Energy prices (coal, petrol, gas) have been going up already since early 2020 and are now skyrocketing because of thew war. Food production relay on energy (tractors’ fuel, petrol for shipping food exports, electricity for food processing factories…), so the increase in energy costs is already amplifying the increase in food prices even further. Transportation freight costs for food assistance and relief supplies increase will make aid more expensive.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b style="color: #b45f06; font-size: large; text-align: left;"><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b style="color: #b45f06; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Women smallscale producers: on the frontlines of the crisis</span></b></div><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMv72vajor6xRVxF9A4WmlvdnGK5vSMiamOQHg2him1cTpJW-iVsAUxnG8Fd5tzHECqDvRcaF-kpYVY9xhai34AdPfibdz1H-2Wnz3UWhZIDRAEKopIS9s2J8oScxA1EO742g_pmh0Gft-yWCqWqiZvJhUTCUfDXHkWAU97IQoxqaqKza4dzyDVpOg=s720" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="720" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMv72vajor6xRVxF9A4WmlvdnGK5vSMiamOQHg2him1cTpJW-iVsAUxnG8Fd5tzHECqDvRcaF-kpYVY9xhai34AdPfibdz1H-2Wnz3UWhZIDRAEKopIS9s2J8oScxA1EO742g_pmh0Gft-yWCqWqiZvJhUTCUfDXHkWAU97IQoxqaqKza4dzyDVpOg=w327-h245" width="327" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Women farmers in Malawi. Juan Echanove, 2018</span></blockquote></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
The upcoming global food crisis will likely have devastating impacts on the World’s poorest people, deepening their poverty and seriously undermining their right to food. Smallholder farmers and women (60% of the world’s chronically hungry people) will be disproportionately affected. <div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The threat of soaring prices will be particularly challenging for those whose rural livelihoods were already precarious. The prohibitive cost of inputs (fertilizers, fuel, etc.) will make production more costly for small-scale producers. They are also food consumers, so soaring food prices will offset any opportunities higher output food prices might create. And this is happening in a context were food insecurity was already soaring globally, dot to the impacts of conflicts and climate change and the effects of the pandemic-driven global economic crisis. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Because agricultural gender inequalities remain strong, women farmers are particularly at risk of hunger, especially when crisis strikes. On average, rural women account for nearly half the agricultural workforce in developing countries. Despite their crucial roles in household food security, they face discrimination and limited bargaining power. Within the household, because of weaker bargaining position they eat least, last and least well. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Our foods systems are profoundly unequal and unjust: the increasing dependence on cereals at the expense of traditional foods and greater reliance on imported food by countries in the Global South are, at the end of the day, root causes of the upcoming food insecurity crisis. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"> More than ever, the World needs to supporting paths to self-reliance for small-scale producers and local markets, promoting diet diversity, more efficient use of fertilizers (including further swift to organic production), reducing food waste (so food produce is used more efficiently) and empowering women farmers, because we know that closing the gender gap good grews food production and build a sustainable future for all.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><br /></div><div>They are mainly men, not women and children, the ones provoking and fighting wars. But women and children are those who mainly suffer wars' horrific immediate consequences and amplifed impacts, including hunger.</div></div>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-52860239488162358362022-02-25T19:43:00.007+01:002022-02-25T19:51:31.907+01:00BurbujasLo que está pasando en Ucrania era obvio y totalmente predecible. Algunos avisaron. Otros prefirieron vivir mundos de fantasía.
Me aflije y me da mucho temor la nebulosa para analizar la realidad en la que viven la mayor parte de los ciudadanos europeos, y que ya se demostró en los inicios de la pandemia, cuando era evidente lo que iba a suceder. Ahora ha pasado lo mismo con la invasión rusa a Ucrania.
Es como una infantilización colectiva de la realidad, una sensación absurda de que en Europa nunca podría suceder nada verdaderamente 'malo'. <div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjM76-Mv_kgwx0GvsRF5WwuVvdhF4YOGacMeO6x8PnO-yYhsHbQPJwrV9LMN9ifRHriunE7PhohkimTXNWr49I3znNhAFsgcDlckF3AW8-RMHHiPgGVO8jZm6PXCwL1QgzYJlY2TfjVqdmGvBFRuTjbZSDggLhlD2VwauXYb13PdFKLOZ7oNvJnGu6g" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="640" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjM76-Mv_kgwx0GvsRF5WwuVvdhF4YOGacMeO6x8PnO-yYhsHbQPJwrV9LMN9ifRHriunE7PhohkimTXNWr49I3znNhAFsgcDlckF3AW8-RMHHiPgGVO8jZm6PXCwL1QgzYJlY2TfjVqdmGvBFRuTjbZSDggLhlD2VwauXYb13PdFKLOZ7oNvJnGu6g" width="320" /></a></div></div><div>Varias generaciones de europeos no expuestas nunca a peligros colectivos reales y la escasa empatia hacia el resto del Planeta (las guerras, las epidemias, nunca han cesado en el mundo que nos rodea) ham hecho vivir a muchísima gente en nuestros países, incluso gente informada y culta, en una especie de burbuja. </div><div><br /></div><div>El estoicismo y la capacidad para mirar a los ojos el peligro, para abordarlo serenamente y con juicio es para mí uno de los pilares de la civilización. Pero es un pilar que nuestras sociedades parecen haber olvidado.
No, el mundo no es un lugar ' peor' ahora, pero tampoco es un lugar perfecto...el mundo es el de siempre , con enornes progresos y razones para ser optimistas, y también con grandes tragedias y sufrimientos que forman parte de la experiencia humana. </div><div><br /></div><div>Para que esos sufrimientos y tragedias impacten cada vez menos en la vida de nuestras sociedades la única solución es la respuesta colectiva, el comprender que lo que ocurre en cualquier rincón del mundo, es también nuestro problema. Sin seguridad para todos no hay seguridad para nadie. Sin vacunas para todos la epidemia no puede erradicarse...es la respuesta colectiva a los grandes retos lo único que puede salvarnos.
Las burbujas de prosperidad y el mirar al otro lado ya no sirve. Nuestras sociedades no pueden vivir como niños consentidos que se han olvidado del sentido de la responsabilidad. </div><div><br /></div><div>Si algunos pocos nos avisaron de lo que se venía encima y no se les escuchaba, o no se les creía, o se les llamaba alarmistas, es por el miedo a crecer, el miedo a la realidad. </div><div><br /></div><div>Ser verdaderamente adulto no es negar los peligros, es confrontarlos, para evitar que sucedan.</div>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-2442167354137276822022-01-25T11:45:00.005+01:002022-01-25T12:00:45.914+01:00RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: WHAT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN?There will be war, almost certainly, but it will be short and limited, not a full invasion of Ukraine. I think it will happen like this: <div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsSs2I_gWQYmNjKHK_X4aBAmlg_-H40EVtHkVZX0-7TE9YdSY0L25qpXRM42rtNR9RdlZkYa7KOejdkAFTj-2lcjTGxYeEy5Kpx0_v_-TRtbGIKotIPLPXxsUgkmKPw_GA5w5O0lpR7sz38rM9u63LVw5w2qHGxZy2yj3TZLr03TwfhWSNvTiCSXWo=s2696" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2046" data-original-width="2696" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsSs2I_gWQYmNjKHK_X4aBAmlg_-H40EVtHkVZX0-7TE9YdSY0L25qpXRM42rtNR9RdlZkYa7KOejdkAFTj-2lcjTGxYeEy5Kpx0_v_-TRtbGIKotIPLPXxsUgkmKPw_GA5w5O0lpR7sz38rM9u63LVw5w2qHGxZy2yj3TZLr03TwfhWSNvTiCSXWo=s320" width="320" /></a></div> The Russian parliament is going to recognize the independence of the 'Dombass republics' right now. The republics will likely apply immediately for formal incorporation into Russia and Russia will start the admission process at full speed. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the meantime, any of the small skirmishes that have never ceased to occur along the Dombass front line will serve as an excuse for Russia to claim that Ukraine has begun a large-scale operation to recapture the Dombass (and Ukraine's massive military presence there right now, to prevent an invassion, will make it easier for Russia to justify).
Russia will then say that it has no choice but to enter with its army to help the population of the Dombass republics, and that it has the legal right (and 'moral obligation') to do so, since they are in the process of becoming an official part of Russia (and in fact the bulk of their population has already a Russian passport: Russia started some years ago issuing passports there to anyone who wanted them). </div><div><br /></div><div> Russia would not limit its offensive to the Dombass area but will attack Ukraine along the entire frontier, with emphasis on the border area closest to Kiev, not with the aim of taking the city (it will not do it, nor will it try, it will only get close, as it did with Tbilisi in 2004).
It is possible that it will also attack from the south, from Crime, in the direction of Odessa.
The purpose of occupying patches of territory in Ucrania well beyond Crimea and Dombass, and in the proximity of Kiev, will not be to retain them afterwards, but to have the upper hand during the negotiation process later. </div><div><br /></div><div> I believe that it will be a very short but very bloody war, with obicous use of heavy and sophisticted weaponry. It is possible that the Belarusian army will also intervene directly on the side of Russia. Neither the US nor the European countries will send ground forces, although mercenaries and volunters will suport both sides and there will be a large supply of weapons to Ukraine from the West. </div><div><br /></div><div> The war, although very short, will provoke a brief global crisis with a crash in the stock markets, a brutal rise in the cost of energy and massive hacker attacks on Western interests. </div><div><br /></div><div>Everything will be very, very fast. In a few days, and with Russia having gained control of portions of Ukraine, but without having at all 'conquered' most of the country, not even getitng close to do so, there will be a ceasefire intermediated by countries neutral in the conflict, such as Turkey or Sweden. </div><div><br /></div><div> A formal negotiation process will strat, in which Russia will agree to withdraw from all the territory of Ukraine occupied by its forces, returning to the pre-war situation (Crimea and Donbass under Russian control) in exchange for (1 ) the international community declaring and granting a 'neutrality' status for Ukraine (such as Finland's neutrality agreed after WWII) so that Ukraine will never join NATO and will become a buffer zone for Russia and (2) the international community recognizing the status quo of Dombass and Crimea as part of Russia. I think Russia will get (1), but probably not fully (2)- perhaps the fate of those territories will be tied to some future UN-granted referemdum .There will be international ground forces deployed to observe the ceasifire and the agreement, under UN aegis. </div><div><br /></div><div> Hence, I don't think it will be a long conflict, neither that a total annexation of Ukraine by Russia will happen, nor that a world war IIII will erupt. But the problem with violent conflicts like this is that, altough we may predict more or less how they strat, there is also the risk of things later to go quite out of control, so eventally things might turn even nastier...and there quite many ways for that to happen in this conflict (e.g. the Baltics geeting involved, or Molodova melted on this because os Transnistria, etc...nor to mention China taking advantage of the situation and going after Taiwan). But I don't think any of these further 'spill overs' will happen. The war will be confined to Ukraine.
Lets hope that even this 'limited war' scenario I am predicting will not happen and that peace will prevail. But I am not very optimistic. </div><div><br /></div><div>At the end , as in every conflict, those that will losse the most will be the civilians: the women, men and children trapped in the middle of the violence driven my high political and economic interests. Sad.</div>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-773539554229544502.post-22084370975642911152021-12-13T11:42:00.009+01:002021-12-14T14:54:39.958+01:00OMICRON: Todo lo que se sabe, y lo que no se sabe aún...<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVxduguI18JAWNDf0F-ZOf1kCdoNvNCa-Y_Iolnocd4Og-v7QeB8JHjqc4eeDf7kiLKGz-_x0ZqmRmqDw6TPAzAVJpfqSUeqqeXIKraA_L8hDr6egAkzA9RjQChmZbe2UVBrxvorNG4Xs/" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVxduguI18JAWNDf0F-ZOf1kCdoNvNCa-Y_Iolnocd4Og-v7QeB8JHjqc4eeDf7kiLKGz-_x0ZqmRmqDw6TPAzAVJpfqSUeqqeXIKraA_L8hDr6egAkzA9RjQChmZbe2UVBrxvorNG4Xs/" width="240" /></a></div><br /></div><div>Las cosas comienzan a estar mucho más claras con respecto a Omicron, aunque quedan algunas incertidumbres por resolverse . Tres certezas ya confirmadas:</div><div> </div><div> (1) Es una variedad de altísima transmisibilidad, muy superior a la de cualquier otra variedad previa. Muchos millones de personas se van a infectar. </div><div>(2) Tener solo una o dos dosis de vacunación, o haber tenido covid antes, no evitan contagiarse con omicron. Los anticuerpos generados por vacunación o infección previa son insuficientes para evitar el contagio. </div><div>(3) En cambio, la dosis de refuerzo sí reduce sustancialmente el riesgo de infección. </div><div><br /></div><div>Conclusión: <b>es esencial que el mayor número posible de gente reciba su dosis de refuerzo lo antes posible</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div> Queda una duda importante: Como de severa es omicron? Omicron, por supuesto, no es un catarro ni una gripe simple; lleva también a mucha gente al hospital, y mata. En Sudafrica hasta ayer había 640 fallecidos confirmados de omicron y muchos miles de hospitalizados, y ya hay casos confirmados de hospitalizados por omicron en Europa al menos en UK, Alemania y Dinamarca, incluidos menores. La pregunta clave es la proporción de gente que requiere hospitalización. Es un porcentaje mínimo? es igual al de otras variedades? es mayor? </div><div><br /></div><div>Ha habido cierta esperanza porque en Sudafrica el porcentaje de personas que están requiriendo hospitalización con omicron parece bastante menor al de variedades anteriores de modo que, aunque haya habido tantísimos nuevos contagios en tan poco tiempo, el sistema sanitario allí, aunque sometido a mucha presión, no se ha saturado. Pero esta información hay que tomarla con mucha cautela y tal vez no sea extrapolable a Europa, por 3 razones principales: </div><div><br /></div><div> (a) Muchos sudafricanos estaban ya infectados con la variedad beta, que comparte varias importantes mutaciones con omicron y que podría generar cierta inmunidad frente a omicron. Este no es el caso de los europeos, que en su inmensa mayoría nunca han estado expuestos a beta. </div><div>(b) La población sudafricana es mucho más joven que la europea. La tasa de hospitalizaciones en las olas anteriores ha sido siempre algo más baja allí que en Europa. </div><div>(c) En Europa es invierno. Es Sudafrica verano. El virus sobrevive mejor en las bajas temperaturas, que además obligan a la gente a pasar más tiempo en interiores. Mayor tiempo cerca de gente en espacios cerrados implica mayor riesgo a estar expuesto a altas cargas virales.</div><div><br /></div><div>Así pues, no sabemos de verdad si omicron en Europa va a causar un porcentaje menor de casos severos, como ha pasado en Sudafrica, o, por las razones que acabo de describir, el paralelismo con Sudafrica puede ser muy engañoso.
Pero en realidad, aunque haya suerte y el porcentaje de casos graves en Europa sea bajo, el reto que se nos avecina sigue siendo mayúsculo, por al menos cuatro motivos: </div><div><br /></div><div> (I) Como ya he dicho, muchisima gente se va a contagiar , así que aunque el porcentaje de casos severos sea al final menor que en las olas anteriores, el numero de hospitalizaciones será extraordinariamente alto. </div><div><br /></div><div>(II) Mucha gente se ha vacunado hace ya muchos meses y se sabe que la protección de los anticuerpos decae con el tiempo. </div><div><br /></div><div>(III) Lo más probable es que el menor porcentaje de casos graves con omicron, de ser eso cierto, no sea debido a que en sí misma sea una variedad menos severa si no que la respuesta inmunológica de mucha gente es ahora mayor gracias a las vacunas y a haber estado infectado antes. Los anticuerpos fallan para hacer frente a omicron, pero no son el único mecanismo de respuesta inmunológica que la infección previa o la vacunación generan: también está la "memoria" de reconocimiento y respuesta a nivel celular. No estamos, en general, tan en riesgo como cuando el virus surgió por vez primera. La gente no vacunada ni infectada previamente en cambio, si va a estar bajo mucho riesgo frente a omicron, que probablemente va a causar los mismos estragos en las regiones con mucha gente 'antivacunas' que los que ahora delta esta causando. </div><div><br /></div><div>(IV) Aún no se sabe nada del porcentaje de gente infectada con omicron que contraerá covid de larga duración. Sabemos que, en variedades anteriores, incluso infectados con síntomas leves pueden sufrirlo , y nada hace pensar que con omicron vaya a ser diferente. Además, con una carga viral tan extrema como la de omicron, es plausible pensar en un mayor riesgo de covid de larga duración. </div><div><br /></div><div>(V) Aún es un poco prematuro para asegurarlo con certeza pero los datos de Sudafrica y algunas informaciones previas de Alemania apuntan a que para los niños el riesgo de hospitalización con omicron, aunque sigue siendo probablemente reducido, es mayor que con otras variantes. </div><div><br /></div><div>Conclusiones:</div><div> -<b>Una ola de omicron es ya inevitable en Europa</b>. Está empezando ya y alcanzará su pico en Navidades y meses siguientes. </div><div>- Aunque omicron cause menos porcentaje de casos severos ( ojalá!) e<b>l riesgo de saturación hospitalaria es muy, muy grande.</b> </div><div>- La solución para evitarlo pasa por la <b>vacunación con dosis de refuerzo al máximo número de gente posible en el menor tiempo posible</b>, la <b>vacunación de los niños</b> y por su puesto el uso de mascarillas, ventilación constante y todas las demás respuestas frente al covid que ya conocemos. Habrá confinamientos? Espero que no, pero es imposible de predecirlo ahora. Todo depende de cuanta gente logre vacunarse a tiempo con la dosis de refuerzo y del civismo de cada sociedad. </div><div><br /></div><div> Esto no es volver a la casilla de salida. <b>Estamos mejor preparados que nunca para hacer frente a esta ola, gracias a las vacunas</b>. </div><div><br /></div><div>Ya sé que la gente está cansada de esto y que muchas personas tienen problemas para afrontar la incertidumbre. El miedo no ayuda. Evadir la realidad tampoco. Al virus le da igual que estemos hartos.
Ni alarmismo ni complacencia: Realismo. </div><div><br /></div><div>Nada nos lleva a pensar, por ejemplo, que no puedan surgir variedades más peligrosas. Mientras el virus siga circulando masivamente en esas regiones del mundo donde hay poco porcentaje de gente vacunada, se seguirán produciendo mutaciones. </div><div><br /></div><div>Las pandemias y otras tragedias colectivas son aspectos totalmente normales en la historia humana...y tenemos la suerte de vivir en una época mejor preparada que ninguna otra para afrontarla.</div>Juanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02345293017141714270noreply@blogger.com0